I cannot believe anyone was surprised by Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the US Presidential Election…

It has been crystal clear for months that he was going to win… The moment Biden brought down the curtain on his ill-fated campaign it was evident the runway Harris had from which to launch her own candidacy was too short.

In addition to that, Kamala had hitched her wagon too tightly to that of her boss, and in the weeks that followed she failed to differentiate herself from the Biden Presidency.

Her attempts to do so focused on a narrative centred on “optimism”, but she failed to articulate how this would translate into clear and compelling policies. On the flipside, she was unable to answer the question posed by her opponent, “Do you feel better off than you did four years ago?”, with a compelling rebuttal.

It gets worse though:
•    Harris was given the job of sorting out illegal immigration, and Trump was quick to point out she scored poorly on her special subject;
•    Harris picked the wrong running mate in the folksy Tim Walz;
•    Harris was too focused on addressing culture wars and not stopping real wars;
•    Harris was too equivocal on the Israel/Palestine conflict and thereby lost the Muslim/Arab vote;
•    Harris took the Latino vote, the Black vote, the women’s vote, the LGBT vote, and who knows, maybe even the pet-lovers vote, for granted;
•    Harris didn’t spend three hours with Joe Rogan;
•    Harris had pals called Oprah and Taylor, and not a buddy called Elon.

Ultimately, Harris stood for election at a time when the US as a nation wasn’t yet ready for a woman of Black/South Asian heritage to occupy the highest office in the land.

And finally, Kamala wasn’t lucky enough to survive two assassination attempts.

Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing…?

For the last two days we have been able to watch, read and listen to the same pundits and pollsters who, at 11.00pm UK time on Tuesday evening were saying this election was too close to call, explain why it was glaringly obvious that Trump would trounce Harris.

Pundits… Schmundits! Pollsters…Smollsters! Those same commentators who were predicting weeks of recounts and wrangling on Tuesday have been in justification overdrive on Wednesday and Thursday.

Question: if it was all so obvious, why are Tesla’s shares up around 20% over the last three days, since Elon’s chum The Donald reclaimed the keys to The White House?

It is with this in mind that every investor should remember the opportunities they’ve missed and the mistakes they’ve made are easy to identify, dissect and magnify with hindsight. That is as true of the professional fund manager as it is of the amateur trader.

As with the margin between victory and defeat in a US swing state, so with the difference between success and failure in investing. It’s not about picking blowout winner after blowout winner, it’s about being right a little more often than you’re wrong, and doing that over the long-term.

Those that entrust their money to others would do well to remember that.